Sunday, August 07, 2005
What outside factors are important here?
Figure and ground. Form and substance. What's most important? What are the hallmarks on the next era?
The rise of the individual. Empowerment. Blogging gives universal voice. The predictions of the Cluetrain are happening. Dell gave abysmal service to a prominent blogger, he blogged it step-by-step, and now thousands are deciding not to buy Dell (me among them). Web 2.0 is two-way. Free agent nation. The organization is flat, so plugging in and unplugging from an employer is becoming largely fiction-free. Then there's the march toward doing what we're good at. This favors the individual with a special skill. After all, he or she can work from just about any home base in the world. Dan Pink sees a conceptual age ahead that celebrates design. Perhaps the balance that needs rejiggering is logic/emotion.
Biological model is replacing machine model. Taylorism in death throes. Numbers are bullshit. Organizations are organisms. Lessons of world war II. ADDIE goes out with the trash.
Complexity are us. Unpredictability. Infinite connections. Disproportionate responses. Ending the illusion of control. Good bye logic. Shit happens. Incredible upside potential. No more God as watchmaker. No more Cartesian breakdowns. Newton in limited doses.
Just us humans. Three brains. Emotional. Lobes faking us out. Competing simpletons. Now augemented. Now big enough to be dangerous.
Accelerating change. Can exponential change continue? In bio, nano, socio, auto, etc. all at once. When do the wheels fly off the vehicle? It's tough to keep up.
Network effects. Networks growing together into a single mesh of information, communications, genetics, nanotech, and access to people. Metcalf's Law: exponential rewards. Code is code. Singularity in commerce. Elsewhere?
The world is flat. It's a small world after all. Global competition? No, global cooperation. Interoperability.